How Far Can the Exurbs Go?

Betting on sprawl has been among the most predictable ways to make money in real estate for the past 80 years. Even in the rustiest Rust Belt cities, the exurban fringes experienced population growth and rising land values.

For a time—perhaps beginning with the 2008 financial crisis—it seemed that exurban sprawl was on the wane, with financing tight and little greenfield land within easy commutable distance of major urban cores left to develop. Corporate headquarters also accelerated their moves back into central business districts, abandoning 80s-and 90s-era suburban office parks for hipper, more talent-friendly urban digs.

But the pandemic and hybrid work gave the exurban fringe a new lease on life. Since 2020, exurban counties have led the nation in population growth, pushing development well beyond what many considered natural geographic boundaries. This has prompted real estate speculation even farther out, stretching the conventional notion of what a city even is.

Today’s Thesis Driven will explore how far the exurban fringe can go. We’ll look at macro as well as technological factors, including:

• Existing migration trends and exurban growth patterns;
• Hybrid work, distributed offices, and other economic factors;
• Forward-looking demographics;
• The role of autonomous vehicles and technology.