Macro
Real estate macro analysis covering the forces that set the cycle: interest rates and capital flows, demographics and migration, policy, construction costs, and distress. Thesis Driven publishes annual predictions and themes, state-of-the-market reads across sectors, and the second-order effects most of the industry prices late.
The Six Things We Learned at Our Capital Markets Summit
The carry trade is dead, and capital is moving to whoever can manufacture cash flow. Takeaways from a day with more than 250 investors and operators in emerging real estate.
The Winners and Losers of America’s Demographic Future
Falling birth rates, shifting migration, and an aging population are already reshaping demand across real estate, faster than most of the market has priced in
Food Culture Is Real Estate
How a generation of superstar chefs and obsessed diners remade urban neighborhoods, inflated rents, and priced themselves out of the streets they made desirable.
The Driverless Car Is Coming for the Strip Center
How autonomous vehicles will break the economics of convenience retail
Why AI Has Struggled to Break Into Mortgage Lending
Stacks of documents, repetitive workflows, and massive economics make mortgage lending an obvious target for AI, but adoption has been slow.
The Rise of the Secondary Leisure Town
When ultra-exclusive resort towns like Jackson Hole and Aspen run out of space and affordability, demand moves down the road
How Rating Agencies Shape CRE Prices
The below-the-surface assessments of a handful of powerful firms influence borrowing costs, capital flows, which deals get financed—and which don't
The State of the US Housing Market in Ten Charts
Supply, prices, rate lock-in, and migration — ten charts on the US housing market and what each trendline means for operators making decisions right now.
Seven Real Estate Predictions for 2026
Rate trajectory, multifamily supply, AI adoption, and four more calls — what Thesis Driven is betting on and against for the rest of 2026.
Was Institutional Reallocation to Multifamily a Mistake?
In the wake of the pandemic, investors aggressively shifted capital from office to multifamily. Was this a historic blunder?
The Blurring of the Second Home
Millennials are buying “second” homes faster than primary homes. What do they want and how is the market evolving to serve them?
